Brazilian footwear production is expected to grow between 0.9% and 2.2% year-on-year in 2024, driven by a surge in domestic demand, according to the Brazilian Footwear Industries Association( Abicalçados).
This estimate should translate into production of 873.4 to 884.6 million pairs in 2024, which will keep Brazil as the world’s fifth largest footwear producer, the largest outside Asia. This improvement is the result of a projected GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024, reflecting the fall in unemployment (7.9%, according to IBGE, the lowest level since 2015) and the increase in real wages. In Brazil, footwear consumption is expected to increase between 2.4% and 3.8% in 2024.
International Trade
The international scenario is expected to improve somewhat in the second half of the year, mainly due to the recovery of the US economy, the main destination for Brazilian footwear abroad. On the other hand, forecasts for 2024 point to setbacks in markets that are also important for Brazilian footwear, with negligible growth in the Eurozone, Colombia and, above all, Argentina.
However, according to Priscila Linck, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Abicalçados, the external scenario for Brazilian footwear is unlikely to change significantly in 2024. Despite the improvement in the US market, Brazilian shipments are expected to fall, as “Asian countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia are gaining ground in North American imports”. By 2024, Abicalçados expects Brazilian footwear exports to fall by between 5% and 9.7% in pairs.
In addition, competition from China remains a factor. Although global footwear exports fell by 8% year-over-year in pairs in 2023, China’s shipments to Latin America, a key market for Brazil, actually grew by 7%.